Bonnie’s Market Update 3/21/25

Volatility continued through March expiration. Eight of the eleven S&P SPDR sectors were higher, Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF), while Materials (XLB) and Consumer Staples (XLP) were the weakest sectors. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose +0.51%.

S&P SPDR Sector ETFs Performance Summary 3/14/25 – 3/21/25

032125 weekly SPDR Sectors

Source: Stockcharts.com

Figure 2: Bonnie’s ETFs Watch List Performance Summary 3/14/25 – 3/2125

032125 Bonnie’s ETF Watch List

Source: Stockcharts.com

Gold was positive, but Silver (SLV) was under selling pressure on Friday to finish the week lower. Semiconductors lagged, and international markets were weaker than the S&P 500.

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Investor Sentiment Remains Extreme Fear

Figure 3: Fear & Greed Index

032125 CNN Fear and Greed Index

Source. CNN.com

Investor sentiment, measured by the Fear and Greed Index (a contrarian index), closed at 23, remaining in the extreme fear zone, often where good buying opportunities arise.

Continue to Monitor NYSE New Lows to See if They Contract or Increase.

Figure 4: NYSE New Lows

032125 NYSE New Lows

Source: Stockcharts.com

New Lows on the NYSE rose in December 2024, with a high of 259. They briefly contracted before peaking at 286 (purple circle) on 1/13/25 and then contracted.

New lows in 2025 have hit high risk a few times and then contracted. Last week, New Lows closed Friday, 3/21, increasing to 85 (pink circle), no longer in the high-risk zone. Watch New Lows to see if New Lows expand above 150, implying an increased risk of the downtrend continuing or remaining below 100 and contracting between 25 and 50, which would be positive for the short term.

Learn more about the significance of New Lows in my book, Journey to Wealth, published on Amazon. If you would like a preview, get a free chapter here.

Watch the Russell 2000 (IWM) ETF to see if it outperforms the S&P 500, setting up a potential reflex rally next week.

Figure 5: Daily iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) Price (Top) and 12-26-9 MACD (Bottom)

032125 IWM Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) rose +0.67% last week, slightly stronger than the S&P 500, which is encouraging. However, IWM has remained in a downtrend since November 2024 (green line) and continues to close below the 50-day (blue rectangle) and 200-day MA (red rectangle) out of favor of investors.

MACD (lower chart) is on a buy below 0, but encouraging MACD is rising. The downside momentum subsided, and the money flow (lower chart) broke the downtrend from February (green line).

It’s too early to declare a bottom with IWM price below the 50 and 200-day MA. A more sustainable rally could occur if MACD generates a buy and breaks the momentum downtrend (green line) from November  2024 and IWM closes above 220.00.

Keep an eye on the strength or lack of strength of Semi’s

Figure 6: Daily Semiconductors (SMH) (Top) and 12-26-9 MACD (Middle) and Money Flow (Bottom)

032125 SMH Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The top chart shows the Daily Semiconductors (SMH) ETF, concentrated mainly in US-based Mega-Cap Semiconductor companies. SMH tends to be a leading indicator for the market when investors are willing to take on increased risk, and the opposite is true when the market is falling.

On Friday, 3/21, it was positive that SMH closed near its high for the day, closing at 224.77, but it finished down -0.79% for the week. On the other hand, tape action for the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) shows no signs of leadership. SMH broke the March uptrend and failed to get above the previous resistance. It remains below the 50 (blue rectangle) and 200-day MA (red rectangle), a sign of underlying weakness.

Support is at 220.00 and 210.00. Resistance at 223.00, 226.00, 231.00, 2410.00, and 246.00.

MACD, a measure of momentum (middle chart), generated a buy last week, and the money flow is rising.

It would be positive for the broad market for Semi’s to have two daily closes above 231.00 and outperform the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Further weakness in SMH and two closes below support at 220.00 would be negative for the short term and imply more weakness.

Sum Up:

The S&P 500 stabilized last week after a sharp downside correction of 10% in only three weeks. Uncertainty regarding tariffs and inflation remains, which is not helping investor confidence. The bottoming process continues. Short-term daily technical momentum patterns remain oversold, and downside momentum has slowed, which is positive. The major averages remain below key moving averages, and overhead resistance lies above, which needs to break for a bottom and a sustainable rally to occur. Manage your risk, and your wealth will grow.

If you want to explore the charts further and get to know each other better, email me at Bonie@BonnieGortler.com, or you can go directly to my calendar to schedule a time Here.

If you like this market update, you will love my free Charting Master Class. Learn more HERE.

Bonnie S. Gortler

Bonnie Gortler, a Consultant, Coach, and Author, is a Wealth & Well-Being expert with over 35 years of experience in managing multi-million-dollar client portfolios at a top-rated investment firm. As the author of Journey to Wealth, Bonnie is dedicated to teaching the importance of risk management and achieving true financial well-being by integrating both the technical and mental aspects of investing. With an M.B.A. and certification as a life coach, Bonnie combines her passion for coaching, consulting, and blogging to inspire people globally. Her powerful techniques and winning mindset help others experience personal growth and financial success. Explore wealth-building tips, personal development strategies, and more at BonnieGortler.com, and discover how you can enhance your wealth and well-being.  


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